The Short Answer
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.5% on October 28, 2026. It's the first increase since July 2023, and Canada's big banks followed right away, moving prime from 4.45% to 4.70%. For Calgary, the short version is this: variable-rate borrowers and anyone carrying prime-linked commercial debt feel it first, home prices won't swing much on a single quarter point, and the buyers who were already stretched (mostly in condos and townhomes) get squeezed a little more.
I'm Mohit Dhillon, a Calgary REALTOR® with Century 21 Bravo Realty. Most of my work is commercial, plus investors and families relocating here. Below is what the hike actually changes for each of those groups, with real numbers.
What the Bank of Canada Actually Did
The Bank of Canada's announcement lifted the overnight rate to 2.5%, the Bank Rate to 2.75% and the deposit rate to 2.45%. The rate had been sitting at 2.25% for about a year.
The reason is oil. With the Middle East conflict in its eighth month and no clear end, high fuel prices have kept CPI inflation around 3% since April, and the Bank expects it to hit about 3.5% by year-end. Strip out gasoline and inflation was 2.2%, and core measures are close to 2%. So this isn't an overheated economy. The Bank is worried that expensive fuel and shipping will leak into the price of everything else, and it hiked to get ahead of that.
It also said there could be a need to raise rates further, but that it will move carefully. The next decision is December 9, 2026.
Who Feels the Hike First
Variable-Rate Mortgages and HELOCs
These move with prime, so they change almost immediately. Here's roughly what a quarter point adds each month on a 25-year amortization, with the rate going from 3.95% to 4.20%:
$500,000 mortgage: $2,617 a month becomes $2,685, about $68 more
$600,000 mortgage: $3,140 a month becomes $3,222, about $82 more
$750,000 mortgage: $3,925 a month becomes $4,027, about $102 more
Your rate depends on your lender's discount off prime. If you have a fixed-payment variable mortgage, your payment stays the same but more of it goes to interest. You can run your own numbers on our mortgage calculator.
Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Fixed rates follow bond yields, not the Bank of Canada directly. The Bank pointed out that bond yields across advanced economies have already risen since the summer, so a lot of the move in fixed rates happened before this announcement. If you're renewing in the next few months, the bigger risk is more increases in December or early 2027, not this one.
Qualifying for a Mortgage
This is the part people miss. Buyers qualify at a stress-tested rate above their actual rate, so every quarter point trims how much a household can borrow. On a pre-approval that was right at the edge, that can mean a price range drops by roughly $10,000 to $15,000. As CBC News reported, the hike shrinks the pool of buyers who qualify, which shifts some leverage from sellers to buyers.
Where Calgary's Housing Market Stands Going In
Calgary wasn't hot before this hike. CREB®'s latest monthly statistics show a market that's balanced overall and soft in the condo and townhome segments. Here are the benchmark prices and how they compare with a year ago:
All Calgary residential: $566,700, down 0.8%
Detached: $739,400, down 1.0%
Semi-detached: $685,200, up 0.1%
Row and townhouse: $412,400, down 5.5%
Apartment condo: $291,400, down 8.3%
Sales were 1,650 for the month, about 4% lower than a year earlier. New listings fell 11%, inventory sat at 6,486 homes (down 6%), and the city had just under four months of supply. CREB also noted that new homes are pulling buyers away from resale because the price gap between new and resale is narrow right now. For a fuller breakdown, see our Calgary real estate market update.
Will Calgary Home Prices Drop?
Not much, and not evenly. Here's how I see it playing out over the winter.
Detached and semi-detached homes should hold close to flat. These buyers tend to have more equity and more income, and supply in that segment is tighter. A $68 a month change doesn't stop a family that's been looking at a detached home in the deep south or the northeast for months.
Townhomes and condos are where the hike bites. That's where first-time buyers and stretched budgets sit, prices were already down 5% to 8%, and there's more than five months of condo supply. I'd expect more price reductions and longer days on market there.
New construction stays competitive. Builders have room to offer incentives, and some will use rate buydowns to keep sales moving. If you're shopping, compare new construction homes in Calgary against resale on a total-cost basis, not just list price.
The counterweight is Alberta's economy. The same oil prices pushing inflation up are good for this province. ATB Financial forecasts Alberta's real GDP to grow 2.6% this year, against 0.9% nationally. The Bank of Canada itself expects housing across Canada to stay relatively weak, but Calgary has jobs and energy investment that most cities don't.
Relocators matter here too. People relocating to Calgary from Ontario and B.C. usually arrive with equity, so a quarter point barely changes their plans. If you're moving from Toronto, Calgary still costs a fraction of what you're leaving, rate hike or not. That demand is a big part of why the upper end, including Calgary luxury homes, has held up better than condos.
What the Hike Means for Commercial Real Estate
This is where the change is more direct than in housing. A lot of commercial debt in Calgary is priced off prime: business acquisition loans, construction and bridge financing, operating lines, and plenty of variable commercial mortgages. Prime-plus loans just got a quarter point more expensive overnight. On interest alone, that's:
$1,000,000 borrowed: about $208 more a month, or $2,500 a year
$2,000,000 borrowed: about $417 more a month, or $5,000 a year
You can work through your own deal with our commercial mortgage calculator.
Buyers and Investors
Commercial deals live on the spread between the cap rate and the cost of debt. When the interest rate on your loan creeps up toward the property's cap rate, leverage stops helping you. A retail strip bought at a 6% cap with debt in the high 5s barely pays for itself, and every hike narrows that gap further. My advice to buyers right now is simple: underwrite at a rate at least half a point above today's quote, and make sure the deal still works. Our pages on Calgary commercial cap rates and commercial financing in Alberta walk through how lenders size these loans.
The flip side is opportunity. Sellers who need to move a property, especially owner-occupied buildings and small plazas, are getting fewer cash-ready buyers. If you have capital or a strong lender relationship, this is when price negotiations get easier. Keep an eye on retail plazas for sale in Calgary and Calgary industrial properties, where well-located assets with solid tenants still trade.
Business Buyers
Most small-business purchases in Calgary (restaurants, liquor stores, car washes, convenience stores, daycares) are financed with floating-rate loans. A higher payment comes straight out of the cash flow you're buying. When you look at businesses for sale in Calgary, judge the price on what the business clears after debt payments at today's rates, not the rates from a year ago. Sellers who priced off last year's numbers will need to adjust, and I'm already seeing that conversation start.
Tenants
Rates don't change your rent tomorrow, but landlords carrying variable debt feel it, and some will push harder on renewals. If your lease is coming up in the next year, start early. Our guide to commercial lease negotiation covers what to ask for.
Rental Property Investors
For residential investors, the math is about carrying cost versus rent. A quarter point adds about $68 a month per $500,000 borrowed, and Calgary rents haven't been rising fast enough to cover that on their own. Properties that make sense now are the ones with more than one income stream. That's why homes with basement suites and small multi-family properties in Calgary keep getting attention from my investor clients, while single-unit condo investments have gotten much harder to justify.
What I'd Do Right Now
Buying a home soon? Get a pre-approval with a rate hold now. Most lenders will hold a rate for 90 to 120 days, which protects you if rates rise again in December.
On a variable mortgage? Call your lender and find out whether your payment changes or just the interest portion. Then decide whether locking in makes sense for your renewal timeline.
Selling? Price to the market you're actually in. With fewer buyers qualifying, an overpriced listing will sit. Start with a free home evaluation, or a commercial valuation if it's a building or a business.
Buying commercial? Stress-test the deal at a higher rate, and talk to your lender before you write the offer, not after.
If you want a second set of eyes on a purchase, a sale or a renewal, I'm happy to run the numbers with you. You can book a commercial consultation, or read more about how I work with sellers and investors at MohitDhillon.com. I work in English, Punjabi, Hindi and Urdu. Call or text (587) 719-5523.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will the Bank of Canada rate hike raise my mortgage payment?
On a variable-rate mortgage, a quarter point adds about $68 a month per $500,000 borrowed on a 25-year amortization. Fixed-rate mortgages don't change until renewal.
What is the prime rate in Canada now?
Canada's big banks raised prime from 4.45% to 4.70%, effective October 29, 2026, following the Bank of Canada's increase to 2.5%.
Will Calgary home prices drop because of the rate hike?
A single quarter point is unlikely to move detached prices much. Condos and townhomes, which were already down 5% to 8% year over year, are more likely to see further softening.
Should I choose a fixed or variable mortgage now?
The Bank of Canada said more hikes are possible, which favours locking in if you can't absorb higher payments. If you can handle some movement and expect rates to come back down in 2028, variable can still work. Talk it through with your lender or broker.
Is now a good time to buy commercial property in Calgary?
It can be, if the deal works at higher rates. Fewer financed buyers means more room to negotiate, but underwrite at least half a point above today's rate before you commit.
When is the next Bank of Canada rate decision?
The next scheduled announcement is December 9, 2026.
Sources: Bank of Canada policy rate announcement, CREB® monthly statistics, CBC News, ATB Financial economic outlook. Payment examples are estimates for illustration and aren't financial advice.