Calgary Real Estate Market Predictions 2026

Calgary is heading into 2026 after a major shift: inventory has risen and the market is no longer moving as one single “Calgary market.” Detached and semi-detached can hold up while apartments/condos and some row segments feel much more price pressure—mainly because supply has increased faster in higher-density product.

The most realistic 2026 strategy is to treat Calgary as multiple micro-markets (property type + location + supply pipeline). That’s how you avoid overpaying, time renovations and listings properly, and spot where negotiation power is building.

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Calgary Market Snapshot

What the latest trends suggest going into 2026

Key Highlights

• More balanced conditions than recent years (more choice for buyers)
• Detached/semi likely steadier than condos/rows
• Price direction depends on inventory + rate cuts + migration
• New construction stays elevated, but may cool slightly
• Rents may grow slower as vacancy rises
• Negotiation power becomes more neighborhood- and product-specific

Price Range

For 2026, pricing is likely to move in a tighter band than the last two years—more “grind” than “spike.” Expect better pricing power where inventory stays limited (many detached/semi pockets), and more discounting where supply remains elevated (especially apartments/condos and some row product).

Inventory Shift

Inventory is the biggest swing factor for 2026. When active listings stay high relative to demand, buyers get leverage and price growth cools. If inventory tightens again (rate cuts + migration stays strong), pricing firms up quickly—especially in low-supply segments.

Sales Pace

Sales can improve in 2026 if borrowing costs ease and buyers regain confidence, but activity will still be “selective.” Properties that are correctly priced, well-presented, and in strong corridors will transact; stale listings will sit longer and need stronger positioning or price resets.


Rental Trend

The rental market is expected to loosen compared to the tight conditions Calgary saw earlier, mainly from rising purpose-built supply. That tends to slow rent growth and increase incentives—especially in buildings/areas where a lot of new rental inventory hits at once.

Rate Path

Even small rate moves matter in Calgary because they change monthly payments and buyer qualification. If rates drift down through 2026, you’ll see demand return first in the most payment-sensitive segments (entry-level homes, townhomes, first-time buyer product), then broaden outward.

Segment Split

2026 is likely to stay “two-speed.” Detached and semi-detached can remain relatively resilient if supply stays near balanced. Apartments/condos and some row segments can remain under pressure if inventory keeps building and buyers have lots of choice.

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2026 Outlook

Realistic scenarios, catalysts, and what smart buyers/sellers should watch

A practical 2026 forecast for Calgary is a market that rewards precision. If inventory remains elevated—especially in higher-density product—pricing stays soft in those segments and negotiations get easier for buyers. If borrowing costs continue easing and Calgary remains a top destination for interprovincial movers, demand holds up and prevents a broad drop across the city.

From a “numbers lens,” the most credible forecasts point to Calgary resale activity in 2026 remaining active, with prices moving inside a wide but realistic range (not a runaway surge, not a collapse). New construction is expected to remain high by historical standards, but not necessarily keep accelerating—meaning supply growth continues, just potentially at a more controlled pace.

For investors, 2026 is more about fundamentals than hype: cash-flow math, rent durability as vacancy rises, and selecting neighborhoods with constrained supply (or limited competing new builds). For homeowners, the edge is timing and positioning: listing strategy, staging, and price discipline matter more in a balanced market. For buyers, negotiation power is strongest where inventory is heavy and where “new build competition” pulls demand away from resale.

The biggest 2026 risks are macro shocks (trade/tariff uncertainty, employment softness) and policy-driven shifts (migration changes). The biggest upside catalysts are sustained in-migration from more expensive cities, improving affordability from lower rates, and strong local job momentum.

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MOHIT DHILLON

Mohit Dhillon — Calgary Commercial Real Estate Advisor

Mohit Dhillon

Calgary Realtor • Investment Advisor • Residential & Commercial Specialist


I help buyers, sellers, and investors make decisions that hold up after the excitement fades—by using real numbers, current market behavior, and product-specific strategy (not generic advice). Whether you’re buying your first home, upgrading, selling in a shifting segment, or investing for long-term wealth, the goal is the same: protect your downside, structure a smart deal, and act with confidence when the opportunity is real.

FAQs

Will Calgary home prices rise in 2026?
Some segments can rise while others stay flat or soften. In 2026, price direction is most likely to depend on inventory levels by property type and whether borrowing costs continue easing.

What’s the most likely “theme” of 2026 in Calgary?
A more balanced, more selective market—where correct pricing and good product still sell, but buyers get more leverage in high-supply categories.

Will condos and apartments recover in 2026?
They can stabilize if inventory stops building and demand improves, but they remain the most sensitive segment to oversupply and buyer choice.

Is 2026 better for buyers or sellers?
It’s mixed. Sellers do best in low-supply pockets and stronger detached/semi product. Buyers do best where supply is heavy (often apartments/condos and some row segments).

What should I watch monthly to understand where 2026 is heading?
Inventory levels, months of supply, sales-to-new-listings ratio, benchmark/average price direction, and rental vacancy/rent growth.

Why do some reports use “benchmark” and others use “average price”?
Benchmark prices aim to track a “typical home” and reduce distortion from what sold that month. Average price can swing based on the mix of high-end vs entry-level sales.

How does new construction affect resale prices?
When new supply rises, buyers get more alternatives, and resale sellers need stronger pricing/marketing. This usually impacts higher-density product first, then spreads outward depending on inventory.

What’s the biggest risk to Calgary’s 2026 market?
A demand shock (job market weakness, trade/tariff issues) combined with still-rising supply—especially if migration slows faster than expected.

Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.